In less than 48 hours, Kamala Harris could make history as the 47th president of the United States. However, if polls are any indication, the outcome of the presidential contest between Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump could be razor-thin.
If victorious, Kamala Harris will pull off perhaps the most stunning win for the White House, having been a presidential candidate for just a little over 100 days following President Joe Biden shockingly dropping out of the race in July.
TheGrio asked several Black leaders, from elected officials to heads of civil rights organizations — both on and off the record — about Harris’ chances of becoming the nation’s first female, first Black woman and first South Asian president. While some expressed privately that Harris would defeat Trump, others showed restraint.
U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who has served in Congress for the past 30 years, told theGrio that he won’t be too confident for Harris until every vote is counted.
“I want to make sure in each election that I’ve done everything humanly possible for victory to happen. But even at that, you always say is there somebody else I could have called? Is there another door that I could have knocked on or is there something that I didn’t do?” said the 76-year-old congressman.
Thompson added, “I’m not gonna jinx myself by being cocky. I’m gonna do everything I need to do between now and … when the polls close. I’m gonna be looking for that last vote until it’s over.”
LaTosha Brown, co-founder of Black Voters Matter PAC, told theGrio, “I feel like she’s gonna win.” However, the voting rights activist said she is “offended” that the race is as close as it is and “we’re even in this position that it’s not a clear victory.”
Reading the tea leaves, early voting data suggests that high and perhaps record Black turnout could tip the scales in Harris’ favor in crucial battleground states.
In addition to increased registration rates among Black voters, recent data points shared with theGrio by a Democratic campaign operative show early solid voting turnout among Black voters in crucial swing states.
In Michigan, Black voters turned in their ballots at a higher rate than white voters. In particular, voters 65 and older returned ballots at a higher rate (77%) than other demographic groups. And in North Carolina, which hasn’t elected a Democrat for president since former President Barack Obama won the state’s electoral votes in 2008, Black voter turnout in early voting outpaced turnout in 2020.
In Georgia, early Black voter turnout last week was comparable to the 2020 elections.
“Georgians are demonstrating with their vote that they are paying attention to what is happening in really, really huge numbers,” said Georgia Democratic Party Executive Director Tolulope Kevin Olasanoye.
“If that trend holds, we’re going to see another historically large number of people turn out to vote in this election,” he added. “We have been doing our part. We’ve invested in the stuff on the ground to turn out the votes to win.”
Georgia, which hadn’t elected a Democratic candidate in nearly 30 years until Biden defeated Trump in 2020, will almost certainly come down to Black voter turnout.
Dr. Roslyn Satchel, CEO of the New Georgia Project, told theGrio that she is “absolutely confident” that Harris will win in Georgia and the presidency.
“I believe that Vice President Harris and her running mate [Gov. Tim Walz] are going to blow Donald Trump and JD Vance away,” said Satchel. “I believe that they will win because I believe that when we fight as American citizens together, we win.”
Whether Harris can defeat Trump on Tuesday will come down to where voters fall on policy. Critical parts of the electorate — Blacks, Latinos, women, young people and pro-LGBTQ+ voters — are necessary for Harris to defeat Trump at the ballot box.
“Kamala Harris is talking about what she is going to try to do to address the specifics of costs for you and your family. Donald Trump is not talking about that,” said Olasanoye. He continued, “He’s talking about sending tariffs on prices of goods that you are buying that will increase your prices and that, by every objective measure, is going to add trillions of dollars to the deficit.”
Dr. Satchel concurred, telling theGrio, “We believe that she will reduce the cost of living so that Georgians and other citizens throughout the country can actually afford to pursue life, liberty and happiness, as we have promised them all as citizens of this great country.”
The Georgia activist added that Harris would also “prioritize access to affordable housing” and “secure bodily autonomy” for millions of women after Trump’s Supreme Court nominees joined a conservative majority to undo federal abortion protections.
Kelly Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, told theGrio that pro-equality voters — which HRC estimates to be 75 million people — are concerned about what a Trump presidency would mean for LGBTQ+ Americans as several states have banned sexuality and gender identity from being discussed in classrooms and outlawed gender-affirming health care.
“I’ve talked to families who have been forced to leave their homes, their home states, just to get health care for their kids,” said Robinson. “I talk to teachers who are afraid of what they can teach and how they can create welcoming schools amid Don’t Say Gay bills and book bans.”
Despite much of the national conversation about whether Black men will cost Harris the presidency, Olasanoye noted that the vice president is “the first presidential candidate in my lifetime to ever offer a specific plan for economic upliftment of Black men in America.
“That is a testament, I think, to her understanding that just because she happens to be Black doesn’t mean that every Black person is going to show up and vote for her,” he said. “She’s got to make the case that she has a plan to make their lives better. And I think she’s doing that.”
Nonetheless, the election will likely be decided by just a few thousand votes in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where Harris is spending her final day of campaigning before hosting her final campaign rally at her alma mater, Howard University, on election night.
Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Austin Davis admits that the race in Pennsylvania will be a close call. He told theGrio he is “concerned” about a potential Trump win in the Keystone State.
“Donald Trump has proven that he is popular among certain segments of our population here. He has always run very competitively in Pennsylvania. He won it in 2016 and barely lost it in 2020,” said Davis. “I don’t think we could take anything for granted. We have to continue to keep our foot on the gas and work to earn every vote.”
